Stock Market Today: Markets Cautious Ahead of Nvidia Earnings and FOMC Minutes

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Major Indexes Hold Steady After Tuesday’s Rally

U.S. stock markets are showing caution on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, as investors await two critical market catalysts: Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report and the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. This follows Tuesday’s strong performance where the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 700 points, breaking a four-day losing streak after President Donald Trump announced an extension on European Union tariff deadlines.

As of mid-morning trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down approximately 70 points (0.18%), while the S&P 500 has dipped 0.16% and the Nasdaq Composite is trading 0.15% lower. The modest pullback comes as investors take a breather following yesterday’s rally and position themselves ahead of today’s key events.

Tariff Relief Provides Temporary Market Boost

Markets received a significant boost earlier this week when President Trump announced he would delay implementing a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9. This decision came following a request from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, pushing back the previously announced June 1 deadline.

“While the delay in EU tariffs has provided a short-term boost to futures markets, underlying concerns about trade relations and upcoming economic indicators continue to weigh on investor sentiment,” noted Naeem Aslam, investing chief at Zaye Capital Markets.

The tariff extension has temporarily eased market tensions, but analysts warn that the underlying trade issues remain unresolved. According to analysis from The Budget Lab at Yale, the proposed 50% tariff could raise the average effective U.S. tariff rate to 21.9%, potentially dampening U.S. GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and driving up consumer prices in sectors like apparel and footwear.

All Eyes on Nvidia’s Earnings Report

Nvidia (NVDA) will release its fiscal first-quarter results after today’s market close, marking one of the most closely watched earnings reports of the season. The chip giant’s performance has significant implications for the broader market, as it makes up about 6.5% of the Nasdaq 100 and 5.5% of the S&P 500.

Analysts expect Nvidia to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, up from $0.61 a year ago, with revenue projected to climb more than 66% to $43.28 billion. Investors will be particularly focused on two key issues: the impact of U.S. export restrictions on the company’s H20 chip sales to China, and the production ramp-up of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.

Last month, Nvidia announced a $5.5 billion charge related to inventory and purchase commitments for its H20 chip following export restrictions imposed by the Trump administration. This has led some analysts to warn that Q2 guidance could be “messy,” with Bank of America suggesting revenue guidance could be as low as $41 billion, below the consensus of approximately $46 billion.

Despite these near-term challenges, most analysts remain bullish on Nvidia’s long-term prospects. According to TipRanks, NVDA stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 34 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months, with an average price target of $164.51, implying a 25.3% upside potential.

FOMC Minutes and Economic Data in Focus

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May 6-7 meeting at 2:00 PM EDT today, providing investors with detailed insights into the central bank’s discussions on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook. While no significant market reaction is anticipated, traders will be looking for clues about the Fed’s stance on inflation and potential rate cuts.

New York Fed President John Williams recently indicated that policymakers may keep interest rates unchanged through July as they seek to better understand the economic effects of President Trump’s trade policy shifts. Currently, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.9% chance of no rate change and just a 2.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting.

In addition to the FOMC minutes, investors are digesting Tuesday’s economic data releases. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for May 2025 showed a rebound after April’s sharp decline to 86.0, which had been the lowest reading since May 2020. Durable Goods Orders for April also came in strong, showing a 7.5% increase month-over-month, reflecting ongoing strength in transportation equipment orders and renewed business investment.

Other Major Stocks Making Headlines

While Nvidia dominates today’s market narrative, several other major companies are also in focus:

Salesforce (CRM) will report its fiscal first-quarter results today, with Wall Street anticipating EPS of $2.54, up 4.1% year-over-year, and revenue of $9.74 billion, a 6.6% increase. The cloud-based CRM giant has gained momentum with its AI-powered Agentforce platform, and analysts remain optimistic about its ability to harness AI for sustained growth.

Macy’s (M) is set to release its earnings report today, with investors looking for insights into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns. The retailer’s performance could provide valuable indicators about the health of the retail sector and consumer confidence.

Tesla (TSLA) shares have gained 6.94% in recent trading, making it one of the most active stocks on the market today. The electric vehicle manufacturer continues to attract investor attention despite ongoing volatility in the tech sector.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) has seen its stock decline by 10.38%, placing it among the day’s biggest losers. The company, which operates the Truth Social platform, has experienced significant volatility since its public debut.

Looking Ahead: Market Outlook and Key Events

As the week progresses, investors will continue to monitor several key events that could impact market direction:

1. The second preliminary estimate of U.S. GDP for the first quarter of 2025 will be released tomorrow (May 29), with projections suggesting a 0.3% year-over-year contraction.

2. Friday, May 30, will bring the release of the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This data point could significantly influence expectations for future monetary policy decisions.

3. Marvell Technology (MRVL) will report its first-quarter results tomorrow, with analysts forecasting EPS of $0.61 (up 154% year-over-year) and revenue of $1.88 billion (up 62%), driven by AI tailwinds.

4. Costco (COST) is also scheduled to report earnings later this week, providing another window into consumer spending habits and retail sector health.

With trading volumes potentially lower following the Memorial Day holiday, market volatility could be heightened. Investors should remain vigilant about inflation signals, Fed policy direction, and tech sector performance, as this week’s developments could establish market trends heading into the summer months.