Market Recap: Stocks Rebound Amid Ongoing Trade War Tensions – April 11, 2025
Major Indexes Show Resilience After Volatile Week
U.S. stock markets are showing signs of recovery on Friday, April 11, 2025, following a tumultuous week dominated by trade war concerns. As of midday trading, the major indexes have managed to regain some ground after Thursday’s steep selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.44% at 39,971.00, S&P 500 futures rose 0.55% to 5,331.00, and Nasdaq Composite futures advanced 0.60% to 18,595.50.
This modest recovery comes after a dramatic week that saw the Dow plunge 1,015 points (2.5%) on Thursday, while the S&P 500 fell 3.46% and the Nasdaq slid 4.31%. Thursday’s losses followed Wednesday’s historic rally, which was one of the best days for stocks in modern history.
Trade War Escalation Continues to Rattle Markets
The primary driver behind this week’s extreme market volatility has been the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. On Friday morning, China announced it would raise additional tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, effective April 12, in direct response to President Trump’s tariff policies.
This move follows Thursday’s clarification from the White House that the total levies on China stand at 145%, a level economists warn could severely impact U.S.-China trade. While President Trump paused most of his “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days earlier this week, the universal 10% tariff that went into effect last Saturday remains in place, along with 25% tariffs on auto imports, steel, and aluminum.
Despite the temporary pause on some tariffs, economists remain concerned about the economic damage already inflicted, with many still forecasting an elevated risk of a U.S. and global recession. JPMorgan maintains its 60% recession probability forecast even after Trump’s partial detente.
Tech Stocks Showing Mixed Performance
The technology sector, which has been particularly vulnerable to trade war concerns due to global supply chain dependencies, is showing mixed performance today. After significant losses on Thursday, some tech giants are staging a modest comeback:
– Apple (AAPL) is gaining ground today after falling 4.24% on Thursday. The company has been particularly sensitive to China tariff news given its extensive manufacturing presence there.
– Microsoft (MSFT) is also up slightly after dropping 2.3% in the previous session.
– Nvidia (NVDA) has risen approximately 1.5% today, attempting to recover from Thursday’s 5.91% decline.
– Tesla (TSLA) continues to struggle, down more than 1% today after a 7.27% drop on Thursday. Analysts have slashed price targets for the EV maker due to concerns about Trump’s impending tariffs on auto parts and weakening demand in Europe and China.
Other notable tech movements include Broadcom (AVGO) up 2.5%, while Texas Instruments (TXN) has slid 8% to lead S&P 500 decliners. On Semiconductor (ON) declined 7%, and Intel (INTC) fell about 6%.
Banking Sector in Focus as Earnings Season Begins
The first-quarter earnings season has officially begun, with major banks reporting results today. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual letter to shareholders that he expected the Trump administration’s tariffs “will slow down growth.”
“The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics), with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars,’ ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits and still rather high asset prices and volatility,” Dimon stated.
Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) also reported today, with Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) scheduled to release their results next week. Analysts had noted that while tariffs may not directly affect banks, they will likely impact their customers.
Commodities and Cryptocurrencies
Gold continues its impressive run, with futures up 1.65% to $3,229.90 per ounce, trading at record high levels. Mining companies are benefiting from this surge, with Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont Mining (NEM) each gaining more than 6%.
Oil prices have stabilized, with West Texas Intermediate futures holding steady at around $60.10 per barrel. This represents a recovery from Wednesday’s four-year low of approximately $55, which was driven by concerns about slowing global demand.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is trading at $82,200, up from an overnight low of $78,900, continuing to track movements in the equities market.
Looking Ahead: Upcoming Market Events
Investors should keep an eye on several important economic events scheduled for next week:
– The European Union will hold an interest rate decision on Thursday, April 17, which could impact global markets.
– U.S. economic data releases next week include Building Permits and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, April 17.
– Friday, April 18, will see bank holidays in several countries, including Australia, Switzerland, the UK, Canada, and Germany, which may affect trading volumes.
As earnings season continues to ramp up, analysts at FactSet estimate a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 7.3% for S&P 500 companies, which would mark the seventh straight quarter of earnings growth.
Market Outlook
As we close out this volatile trading week, market sentiment remains cautious but slightly optimistic. The CBOE Volatility Index, often referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, surged 40% on Thursday and briefly traded above 50 points midday—a rare level associated with extreme volatility.
While today’s modest gains offer some relief, investors remain wary about the economic effects of the U.S.-China trade war and its potential impact on global financial markets. The European Union has stated it will use the 90-day pause in U.S. tariffs to find an alternative solution with President Trump, describing the hiatus as a “window of opportunity.”
For investors navigating these uncertain waters, diversification and careful monitoring of trade developments will be crucial in the weeks ahead as markets continue to digest the implications of these significant policy shifts.
