Predicting exactly when or if Trump will reverse course on his tariff policies is inherently speculative, as it depends on a mix of economic, political, and market factors, as well as his own decision-making process, which can be unpredictable. However, I can offer some insight based on current trends and past behavior.
As of today, April 5, 2025, Trump’s recently imposed tariffs—announced on April 2 with a 10% baseline on all imports effective today and higher rates on specific countries like China (34%), the EU (20%), and others starting April 9—have indeed triggered significant market turmoil. The S&P 500 saw its worst day since 2020 on April 3, dropping nearly 5%, and the Dow fell nearly 4%, with global markets following suit. Economists and analysts, like those from JP Morgan, are now warning of a 60% chance of a global recession by year-end if these tariffs persist, alongside inflation potentially hitting 5%. This mirrors the scale of disruption seen during the COVID-19 crisis, as you noted, and has fueled speculation that Trump might face pressure to backtrack.
Historically, Trump has shown a willingness to adjust tariff plans when faced with strong pushback or when he can claim a “win.” For instance, in early March 2025, he delayed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by a month after talks with automakers, and on March 11, he reversed a threat to double steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada from 25% to 50% following Ontario’s suspension of an electricity surcharge. These moves suggest he’s sensitive to immediate economic fallout or opportunities to negotiate concessions, even if he publicly doubles down—like his April 4 Truth Social post insisting “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”
The current situation is more severe, though. The broad scope of these tariffs, combined with retaliation from China, Canada, and the EU, has rattled businesses and investors. Some allies, like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, argue the tariffs are permanent, while others, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, hint at flexibility if trading partners adjust their policies. Trump himself has left the door open, saying on April 3 he’d negotiate if countries offer “something phenomenal.” Posts on X and analyses from outlets like *The National Interest* suggest he might pivot within days or weeks if markets continue to hemorrhage—potentially as soon as this weekend (April 5-6) or early next week (April 7-8)—to stabilize things and spin it as a victory.
Given the stakes, a reversal could come soon—perhaps within one to two weeks (by mid-April)—if stock markets keep sliding, recession fears mount, or key industries (e.g., auto, tech) lobby hard enough. Alternatively, he might hold firm longer to project strength, only relenting by late April or May if economic data (like GDP or inflation reports) turns dire. Without a crystal ball, the best guess is he’ll start softening his stance by mid-April 2025, balancing his tariff obsession with the reality of a tanking economy. Keep an eye on market reactions and his next moves—those will be the biggest clues.