Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Nears Record High as Middle East Ceasefire Holds

Market Indexes Show Strength as Oil Prices Continue to Fall

Major U.S. stock indexes are poised for a mixed opening on Wednesday, June 25, 2025, as investors closely watch whether the S&P 500 can reach a new all-time high. Futures tied to the broad index were marginally higher in premarket trading, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 12 points. Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.1%.

The S&P 500 jumped more than 1% in Tuesday’s session, now sitting less than 1% off its record high as oil prices fell on optimism that the ceasefire between Iran and Israel would hold. The Nasdaq Composite also gained more than 1%, while the Dow rallied over 500 points. Most notably, the Nasdaq 100 added 1.5% to end at a record closing level.

European markets are showing mixed performance this morning, with the FTSE 100 down 0.08% at 8,775.00, the DAX declining 0.42% to 23,541.26, and the CAC 40 slipping 0.22% to 7,599.16.

Oil Prices Tumble as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Oil prices have cratered over the past two days, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropping 6% on Tuesday. Brent crude oil futures fell 6.1% to $67.14 a barrel, reaching their lowest settlement since June 10. WTI crude futures fell to $64.37, the lowest settlement value since June 5.

The dramatic decline in oil prices comes as markets react positively to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran announced by President Trump. This development has helped lift stocks across most sectors, with investors hoping the delicate peace will hold.

“The market will view this Iran threat as now gone and that is a positive for growth in the broader Middle East and ultimately the tech sector,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. “It will take some time for this conflict to settle with this ceasefire an initial step, but the market will view the worst is now in the rear-view mirror with investors looking forward.”

Fed Chair Powell to Testify Before Senate Committee

Investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he speaks before the Senate Banking Committee today. This follows his testimony to Congress on Tuesday, where he largely repeated his usual stance that the path forward for interest rates will depend on upcoming inflation data.

Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted slightly, with odds of a July rate cut down to 18.6% from 20.7% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, odds of at least one cut by the September meeting rose to 85.2% from 82.7% on Monday and 62.5% a week ago.

“The markets are telling Powell that he will be lowering rates much more quickly than he portrayed today,” wrote Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities.

Key Earnings Reports to Watch Today

Several major companies are reporting earnings today, with investors particularly focused on results from General Mills, Paychex, and Micron Technology.

General Mills (GIS) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.71 per share on revenue of $4.59 billion for the quarter ending May 31, 2025. This represents a 29.70% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. The food company has beaten expectations every quarter over the past year.

Paychex (PAYX) is projected to report quarterly earnings of $1.18 per share on revenue of $1.43 billion for the quarter ending May 31, 2025. This represents a 5.36% increase compared to the same quarter last year. The internet software company has consistently beaten expectations in recent quarters.

Micron Technology (MU) will report after the bell, with analysts expecting earnings per share of $1.59. The company is benefiting from surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in AI servers. Analysts project Q3 revenue of $8.8 billion, up 17% year-over-year, driven by record data center shipments and a 22% sequential increase in DRAM bit growth. Micron’s HBM3E chips, which deliver 1.8 terabytes per second of bandwidth, are critical components in NVIDIA’s Blackwell GPUs—the technology powering advanced AI models.

Other companies reporting today include Winnebago Industries (WGO) and Daktronics (DAKT) before the market opens, and Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) and Culp (CULP) after the close.

Economic Data on Tap

Investors will be watching for new home sales data due this morning, which could provide insights into the health of the housing market. The report will be released at 10:00 AM ET.

Additionally, the EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report will be released at 10:30 AM ET, which could impact already volatile oil prices. The U.S. Treasury will also auction 5-year notes at 1:00 PM ET.

Market Resilience Continues to Impress

The Israel-Iran conflict marks the latest obstacle the market has seemingly shaken off this year. Even as investors worry about variables like a resurgence of inflation tied to tariffs and the strength of the consumer, U.S. stocks have continually rebounded from dips over recent months.

“The market continues to drive higher,” said Joe Terranova, senior managing director for Virtus Investment Partners. “I use the world ‘resiliency’; I will use that word over and over again because this is one of the most resilient markets that I have ever witnessed.”

This resilience is evident in the performance of major indexes year-to-date. The US500 has climbed 2.98% over the past month and is up 11.32% compared to the same time last year. The Nasdaq 100 is up about 4% in June, on track for its third positive month in a row, and has rallied more than 15% this quarter, which would mark its biggest quarterly gain since 2023.

Volatility Continues to Ease

Market volatility continues to drift lower. The VIX fell sharply on Tuesday, down 2.35 points to 17.48, its lowest level in two weeks, as markets digested the ceasefire news and risk appetite returned. VIX futures and ultra-short measures also eased, indicating less demand for downside protection.

For long-term investors, this means market pullbacks are likely to remain orderly and option-insurance costs are more attractive after last week’s spike.

As the trading day begins, all eyes will be on whether the S&P 500 can push through to a new record high, while investors continue to monitor the fragile peace in the Middle East and digest today’s earnings reports and economic data.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. We are not financial professionals. The authors and/or site operators may hold positions in the companies or assets mentioned. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.