Stock Market Today: Mixed Performance as Post-Election Rally Slows
Market Overview
As of Thursday, November 14, 2024, the U.S. stock market is showing signs of a pause in the post-election rally that has dominated recent trading sessions. The major indexes are exhibiting mixed performance, reflecting investor caution as they digest recent economic data and anticipate key events.
Current Market Indexes
As of the latest available data:
– The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up 0.07% in pre-market trading, following a 0.1% gain in the previous session, closing at 43,958.19.
– The S&P 500 (SPX) futures are up 0.04%, after a modest 0.02% increase in the last trading day, ending at 5,985.38.
– The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures are down 0.02%, continuing the tech-heavy index’s 0.26% decline from the previous session.
This mixed performance suggests a potential slowdown in the market’s upward momentum, as investors reassess their positions in light of recent economic indicators and corporate earnings reports.
Key Market Drivers
Inflation Data: The recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October has played a significant role in shaping market sentiment. The CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with economists’ expectations. The year-over-year inflation rate rose to 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at a 3.3% annual rate.
Federal Reserve Expectations: Following the CPI data release, market participants are increasingly anticipating further monetary policy easing. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates an 83% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut in December, up from 60% just a day earlier. This shift in expectations is influencing trading strategies and asset allocations.
Corporate Earnings: Third-quarter earnings reports continue to impact individual stocks. Notable performers include Griffon Corp. (GFF) and Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO), both of which exceeded earnings expectations, leading to significant stock price increases of 18.2% and 2.4%, respectively.
Upcoming Market Events
Investors are closely watching several key events that could influence market direction:
1. Producer Price Index (PPI) Release: The PPI data, a measure of wholesale inflation, is expected to be released today. Analysts predict the core PPI will rise 0.3% in October, compared to 0.2% in September.
2. Federal Reserve Chair Speech: Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech in Dallas later today, which could provide insights into the Fed’s stance on monetary policy and economic outlook.
3. Earnings Reports: Several major companies are set to release their quarterly results, including Walt Disney (DIS), JD.com (JD), Applied Materials (AMAT), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), and NetEase (NTES).
Significant Stock News
– Super Micro Computer (SMCI) saw a 6.3% decline after announcing a delay in submitting its fiscal first-quarter results.
– Rocket Companies (RKT) dropped 9.1% following weak Q3 results and soft guidance.
– Spotify (SPOT) surged 11.4% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results.
Global Market Context
Asian markets closed lower on Thursday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 1.96%, Japan’s Nikkei and Topix indices down 0.48% and 0.27% respectively, and China’s Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices falling 1.73% and 2.83%. This global context suggests that investors worldwide are cautiously evaluating economic data and its implications for monetary policy.
Market Outlook
As the post-election rally shows signs of slowing, investors are likely to focus on upcoming economic data, Fed communications, and corporate earnings to gauge the market’s next move. The anticipation of potential rate cuts in 2024 may continue to support equity valuations, but concerns about inflation and economic growth could introduce volatility.
Traders and investors should remain vigilant, keeping an eye on the PPI data release, Jerome Powell’s speech, and the performance of key stocks reporting earnings. These factors will play crucial roles in determining short-term market direction and could provide insights into longer-term economic trends.
