Stock Market Today: Markets Cautious as US-China Trade Talks Continue; Investors Eye Inflation Data

Major Indexes Tread Water Amid Trade Negotiations

The stock market showed mixed performance Tuesday as investors maintained a cautious stance while monitoring the second day of US-China trade talks in London. Near the close, the S&P 500 edged up 0.21% to 6,018.71, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.30% to 19,649.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly, down 0.05% to 42,741.65.

The market’s hesitant mood reflects investor uncertainty surrounding the ongoing high-level trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed optimism early in the day, stating the talks were “going well” with expectations for a full day of discussions.

“The stock market today is essentially stuck in a holding pattern,” said market strategist Emma Rodriguez. “While we’re seeing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at their highest levels since February, traders are reluctant to make significant moves before getting clarity on the trade situation and tomorrow’s inflation data.”

Trade Talks Take Center Stage

The second day of US-China trade negotiations has captured market news today, with export controls topping the agenda. According to Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, the talks are expected to result in Beijing quickly releasing rare earths for export, while Washington may ease China’s access to semiconductors.

Chinese stocks showed volatility before today’s meeting resumed, suggesting investor skepticism about the talks’ potential success. “The market is too sensitive,” Fu Shifeng, investment director at Cheng Zhou Investment, told Bloomberg. “People seem to be speculating that the talks didn’t go well.”

President Trump has maintained a cautious tone, noting yesterday that “China’s not easy” despite White House officials suggesting the discussions had been productive. Any signs of progress could provide relief to markets today, as uncertainty about US-China relations has contributed to economic growth concerns worldwide.

Investors Await Critical Inflation Data

Market participants are now counting down to tomorrow’s release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for 8:30 AM ET on June 11. The report will offer fresh insights into inflation amid evolving trade policies, with analysts expecting price pressures to have accelerated last month.

“Tomorrow’s inflation data could be a pivotal moment for the stock market live action we’re seeing,” noted economist Thomas Chen. “With President Trump pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, citing the European Central Bank’s more aggressive easing cycle, the CPI numbers will significantly influence the Fed’s next move.”

Recent PMI survey data has shown US suppliers hiking prices due to tariff-related supply shortages, leading to the largest rise in prices charged by US companies for their goods and services since September 2022. This contrasts with the eurozone, where improved supply availability has encouraged discounting.

Notable Stock Movers

Several stocks made significant moves in today’s near the close market update:

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) plunged 12.93% to $97.37 after reporting disappointing quarterly results. The food company was among the day’s biggest losers. Analysts had expected earnings per share of $2.25, representing a 15.41% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.

Tesla (TSLA) continued its recovery from last week’s sell-off, rising 2.40% to $316.00, making it one of the most actively traded stocks.

Insmed Incorporated (INSM) led the gainers with a remarkable 27.05% surge to $89.80, while Casey’s General Stores (CASY) jumped 14.80% to $504.29.

Plug Power (PLUG) also showed strong performance, climbing 15.00% to $1.40.

Upcoming Earnings Reports

After the market close today, several companies are scheduled to report earnings, including:

GameStop (GME) with an implied move of ±12.06%
Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) with an implied move of ±16.50%
Stitch Fix (SFIX) with an implied move of ±18.60%
GitLab (GTLB) with an implied move of ±13.53%

Economic Outlook

The World Bank has joined other institutions in warning that trade policy could weigh on US growth. It forecasts economic expansion of just 1.4% this year, half the rate recorded in 2024.

However, a gauge of US small-business optimism came in higher in May—the first rise since September—amid the trade truce with China. The NFIB survey did note concerns about President Trump’s tax-and-spending policies creating uncertainty about the economic outlook.

“The market news today reflects this mixed economic picture,” said portfolio manager David Williams. “While we’re seeing some positive indicators in small business sentiment, the broader concerns about trade policy and inflation continue to create headwinds for sustained growth.”

As trading nears its close, investors remain focused on how tomorrow’s inflation data and the outcome of the US-China trade talks will shape market direction for the remainder of the week.