See All Market Updates LiveMarket Indexes Poised for Mixed Open as Economic Data Looms
The stock market is set for a mixed opening on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, as investors prepare for a crucial day of economic data releases and high-profile earnings reports. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were down 0.51% in early trading, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.66%. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 300 points, or 0.75%, indicating some divergence in market sentiment.
This comes after a positive session on Tuesday, where the major indexes extended their winning streak. The Dow climbed 300 points (0.8%), while the S&P 500 gained 0.58% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.55%. Tuesday marked the sixth consecutive day of gains for both the Dow and S&P 500, representing the longest winning streak since July for the Dow and since November for the S&P 500.
Despite recent gains, April has been a volatile month for markets following President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariff announcement on April 2, which triggered significant market turbulence. The S&P 500 briefly entered bear market territory on April 7 but has since recovered and is now down just 0.9% for the month. The Dow is on pace for a 3.5% loss in April, while the Nasdaq is about 0.9% higher.
Critical Economic Data Releases Today
First Quarter GDP Report
Today’s market action will be heavily influenced by the release of the first reading of Q1 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) data. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect an annualized growth rate of just 0.4%, adjusted for seasonality and inflation.
The expected slowdown is largely attributed to a massive surge in imports as businesses front-loaded goods to get ahead of the impacts of Trump’s tariff hikes. Large upward import swings increase the trade deficit and can negatively affect GDP. Additionally, consumer spending likely slowed during the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year.
Several banks on Wall Street have already trimmed their GDP estimates, with some anticipating negative growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast shows a decline of 1.5% in the first quarter, while the New York Fed is predicting growth of 2.6%, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding today’s report.
PCE Inflation Data
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March will also be released today. This inflation metric is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and is one of its preferred measures. Economists expect no gain for March and a reading of 2.2% for headline inflation year-over-year, down from February’s 2.5%.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to measure 2.6% year-over-year, compared to 2.8% in February. On a monthly basis, core inflation is expected to rise by just 0.1% from February to March.
A more benign inflation print could help Federal Reserve policymakers justify a rate cut in the face of weaker economic conditions if they can point to an underlying trend of cooler inflation.
Tech Titans Report Earnings Today
Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview
Microsoft (MSFT) will release its Q3 2025 earnings after the market closes today. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $3.21 on revenues of $68.43 billion, compared to the previous year’s earnings of $2.94 per share on sales of $61.86 billion.
Growth is projected to be primarily driven by Microsoft 365 products and the Intelligent Cloud segment, with the company’s Azure cloud offerings remaining a critical factor in Microsoft’s long-term growth strategy. Investors will be particularly interested in any updates regarding Microsoft’s AI initiatives, especially after CEO Satya Nadella recently revealed that 20-30% of code inside the company’s repositories was written by AI.
Meta Platforms (META) in Focus
Meta Platforms (META) will also report its first-quarter earnings today after the bell. Analysts expect the company to produce $41.38 billion in revenue and EPS of $5.24, representing quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 14.4% and EPS growth of 21.3%.
Key components of Meta’s earnings presentation will include updates on sales, profits, user engagement, ad prices, and the company’s artificial intelligence initiatives. Meta has beaten analysts’ expectations for revenue and EPS for seven consecutive quarters, and investors will be watching to see if this trend continues.
The company recently launched a new standalone AI app, rivaling ChatGPT, as it continues to expand its AI capabilities.
Other Notable Earnings and Market News
Several other major companies are reporting earnings today, including Qualcomm (QCOM), Caterpillar (CAT), and KLA Corp (KLAC).
Meanwhile, tariff developments continue to impact market sentiment. On Tuesday, President Trump signed an executive order to support automakers by preventing additional tariffs on foreign-made cars from being layered on top of existing tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also told CNBC that the White House was close to announcing a trade deal, though he didn’t name the country. Later, President Trump said that tariff negotiations with India are “coming along great” and that the U.S. could soon strike an agreement with the nation.
Market Outlook
As April draws to a close, investors are assessing whether the recent market recovery can be sustained amid ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted on Tuesday that “individual investors have held tight, while institutional investors have panicked” during the recent market turmoil, with retail investors buying during this month’s sell-off.
HSBC head of Americas equity strategy Nicole Inui recently cut her S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600 from a prior forecast of 6,700, recommending clients position “defensively” as the market narrative continues to swing between fears over higher inflation, slower growth, and possibly a recession.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, the surge in imports is expected to fade. Instead, lower imports, paired with more front-loading of consumer spending, could boost second-quarter GDP, though many economists expect very modest growth in 2025.
Today’s economic data releases and earnings reports will provide crucial insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could set the tone for market performance in the coming months.