Stock Market Today: Holiday Cheer Amidst Mixed Signals
As we approach the end of 2024, the stock market presents a mixed picture on this Christmas Eve, Tuesday, December 24. With trading volumes expected to be light in this shortened session, investors are weighing recent gains against concerns about future Federal Reserve policies.
Current Market Performance
As of the morning of December 24, 2024, the major U.S. stock indexes are showing modest gains:
– The S&P 500 is up 0.2% to 5,974.07
– The Nasdaq Composite has advanced 0.4%
– The Dow Jones Industrial Average is relatively flat, hovering around 42,906.95
These figures come after a positive session on Monday, where all three major indexes closed in the green, driven largely by strong performances from several “Magnificent Seven” stocks.
Tech Sector Leads the Charge
The technology sector continues to be a significant driver of market performance. Notable gainers include:
– NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Up 3.7%
– Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Increased by 2.3%
– Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Surged by 2.5%
– Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Gained about 1.6%
Other tech giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) also saw modest increases, while Microsoft (MSFT) experienced a slight dip of 0.3%.
Upcoming Market Events
While specific events for the coming days are limited due to the holiday season, investors are keeping a close eye on several factors:
1. Federal Reserve Policy: The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 91.4% probability of the Fed maintaining current rates at its January meeting. This has created some uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.
2. Interest Rate Projections: The Fed’s recent forecast of only two 25-basis-point rate reductions in 2025, down from the previous projection of four cuts, has impacted market sentiment.
3. “Santa Claus Rally”: Historically, the period encompassing the last five trading days of December and the first two of January has been strong for stocks. Investors are watching to see if this trend continues.
Major Stock News
1. U.S. Steel (X): Shares fell 2.3% in premarket trading as Nippon Steel’s $15-billion bid for the company has been referred to President Biden, who has expressed opposition to the tie-up.
2. American Airlines (AAL): The stock is under pressure after a technical issue forced the carrier to briefly ground all its flights on one of the busiest travel days of the year.
3. Broadcom (AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Both companies continue to see gains, buoyed by analysts’ positive comments about their artificial intelligence potential.
Market Indicators and Trends
– Treasury Yields: The 10-year yield has ticked up to 4.63%, reflecting a more than 20 basis point increase since the Fed’s latest policy announcement.
– Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has surged to $97,000 after a recent dip, though it remains below its recent high of over $100,000.
– Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate crude is trading at approximately $69.75 per barrel.
– Market Breadth: While the S&P 500 has shown overall gains, the equal-weight S&P 500, a proxy for the average index stock, is down 5.8% in December, indicating some underlying market weakness.
Looking Ahead
As we close out 2024, market participants are questioning whether U.S. stocks will continue their climb to new record highs. Concerns about market health beneath the surface and high valuations persist. Analysts, like Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley, warn that “expensive/unprofitable growth stocks and low-quality cyclicals appear to be the most vulnerable to potentially higher-for-longer interest rates and less liquidity.”
The stock market will close early at 1 p.m. ET today and remain closed on Christmas Day, reopening on Thursday. As we enter the final trading days of the year, investors will be watching closely to see if the traditional “Santa Claus rally” materializes, potentially providing a positive end to what has been a complex and eventful year in the financial markets.
