Stock Market Today: Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Inflation Data Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty
Major Indexes Poised to End May with Strong Gains Despite Friday’s Caution
Stock futures edged lower Friday morning as investors prepare to digest the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge while continuing to navigate uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policy. Despite today’s cautious start, major indexes are on track to close May with impressive gains.
As of early trading on May 30, 2025, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 19 points (0.04%), while S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% alongside Nasdaq-100 futures. This slight retreat follows a volatile trading session on Thursday, where major averages closed well off their intraday highs amid fluctuating trade news.
May Performance Shows Strong Market Resilience
Despite recent volatility, the major indexes are set to finish May with robust gains. The S&P 500 has added more than 6% this month, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has surged an impressive 10%. The 30-stock Dow has gained approximately 4% during the same period.
If these gains hold through today’s session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq would record their best monthly performances since November 2023. Market analyst Ryan Detrick of Carson Group notes this strong May performance historically signals positive momentum, stating that when the S&P 500 returns more than 5% in May, “then the next 12 months have never been lower and [are] up 20% on average.”
PCE Inflation Data in Focus
Investors are closely watching today’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to show a 0.1% monthly increase and a 2.5% annual rise for April, down from 2.7% in March.
This inflation reading comes at a critical time as markets assess the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently noted that inflation remains above their target and cited “a great deal of uncertainty about tariffs” as a reason for maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Trade Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Markets
The back-and-forth developments regarding President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs continue to create market uncertainty. On Wednesday night, the U.S. Court of International Trade halted the majority of these tariffs, ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority. However, by Thursday afternoon, an appeals court granted a stay, allowing the duties to remain in place until next week.
“In general, markets don’t like uncertainty, because it makes forecasting more difficult,” noted Larry Tentarelli, founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “We expect the tariff news cycle to be an extended process, which can lead to higher short-term volatility.”
Major Stock Movements and Corporate News
In corporate news, Nvidia (NVDA) continues to drive market sentiment following its strong earnings report. The AI chipmaker revealed it’s shipping approximately 1,000 GB200 AI chips per week with plans to increase production this quarter. Microsoft (MSFT) has already deployed tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs and is expected to ramp to hundreds of thousands with OpenAI as a key customer.
Meanwhile, clothing retailer Gap pulled back more than 17% in premarket trading after issuing a weaker-than-expected second-quarter outlook. Cosmetics retailer Ulta Beauty advanced 7% on strong first-quarter results, while Dell Technologies (DELL) gained about 1.7% following robust first-quarter revenue.
Apple (AAPL) remains in focus as analysts assess the potential impact of proposed import tariffs on iPhones. Morgan Stanley maintains an “Overweight” rating on the stock, noting that a 25% tariff isn’t enough incentive for Apple to shift production back to the U.S.
Tesla (TSLA) faces headwinds as UBS maintains a “Sell” rating, citing survey results showing declining consumer interest in both Tesla and electric vehicles more broadly.
Looking Ahead: Market Outlook
As May concludes, market participants remain cautiously optimistic about continued momentum into summer. “I think as we head into summer that momentum can continue, [but] then that’s where the hard data that may catch up to the weaker, soft data, could come into play,” said Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist Ed Clissold.
With strong May performances historically signaling positive returns over the following 12 months, investors will be watching closely to see if this pattern holds amid ongoing trade uncertainties and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to inflation.
