Stock Market Recap: Why Was the Market Up Today? – November 12, 2024
Major Indexes Hit New Highs as Post-Election Rally Continues
The U.S. stock market maintained its impressive momentum on Tuesday, November 12, 2024, as investors remained bullish following the recent presidential election. The post-election rally continued to drive major indexes to new heights, with market participants expressing confidence in the president-elect’s economic policies.
Market Performance: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average
All three major stock indexes closed in positive territory:
1. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.1% to finish at 6,001.35, marking its first close above the key psychological barrier of 6,000. During intraday trading, it reached an all-time high of 6,017.31.
2. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) ended at a record high of 19,298.76, rising 0.1%. In intraday trading, the tech-laden index touched an all-time high of 19,366.07.
3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.7% or 304.14 points to close at 44,293.13, marking its first closing above the key technical level of 44,000 in history. The blue-chip index reached an intraday high of 44,486.70.
Factors Driving Market Optimism
Several key factors are contributing to the current market optimism:
1. Solid Economic Fundamentals: The U.S. GDP grew at 1.6%, 3%, and 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker estimates a 2.5% GDP growth for the fourth quarter.
2. Strong Corporate Earnings: As of November 8, 452 S&P 500 companies have reported their quarterly financial results. Total earnings are up 7.1% year over year on 5.5% higher revenues, with 73.5% beating EPS estimates and 61.5% beating revenue estimates.
3. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: The Fed reduced the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points in its November FOMC meeting, following a 50 basis-point cut in September. The current fed funds rate range is 4.50-4.75%, down from a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5% in mid-September.
Sector Performance and Notable Stocks
Among the S&P 500 sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financials (XLF) were the top performers, advancing 2% and 1.4%, respectively. The Real Estate sector (XLRE) was the biggest laggard, dropping 0.9%.
Notable stock movements included:
– Tesla Inc. (TSLA): The electric vehicle manufacturer’s stock jumped 9%, contributing significantly to the Nasdaq’s gains.
– Coinbase (COIN): The cryptocurrency exchange saw its shares struggle for gains after large increases in previous sessions.
Upcoming Market Events and Potential Impacts
Investors should keep an eye on several upcoming events that could impact market performance:
1. Cabinet Appointments: The market is closely watching the president-elect’s cabinet picks, particularly the appointment of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state. This choice, along with other China hawks on the team, has raised concerns about potential tougher tariffs and their impact on Chinese stocks.
2. December Fed Meeting: Market participants are pricing in a 70% probability of another 25 basis-point rate cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
3. Earnings Reports: Continued strong corporate earnings could further boost market sentiment.
Market Outlook and Potential Risks
While the market rally has been impressive, some analysts are cautioning about potential risks:
1. Overbought Conditions: Bank of America reports that investor exposure to U.S. stocks is at an 11-year high, potentially setting the stage for profit-taking.
2. Inflation Concerns: The incoming administration’s economic plans could potentially spur inflation, which may impact market performance.
3. Yield Pressures: The 10-year Treasury yield has ticked up, adding about 8 basis points to reach 4.39%, which could affect equity valuations.
As the market continues to digest post-election developments and economic data, investors should remain vigilant and diversified in their portfolios. The current rally, while impressive, may face challenges as new policies are implemented and global economic conditions evolve.
