Market Watch: Wall Street Navigates Earnings Season and Economic Data on April 30, 2025

Major Indexes Show Mixed Performance as Investors Await Key Data

The stock market is showing mixed performance on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, as investors navigate a busy day of corporate earnings and crucial economic data releases. As of midday trading, the S&P 500 is down slightly by 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite has declined 0.6%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing resilience, adding approximately 0.7% or 300 points, continuing its longest winning streak of 2025.

This mixed performance comes after a tumultuous April for markets, triggered by President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariff announcement on April 2, which set off a bout of volatile trading. Despite this volatility, the major averages have been gradually narrowing the month’s losses. The S&P 500 briefly entered bear market territory on April 7 but has since made a remarkable comeback and is now down just 0.9% for the month. The Dow is on pace for a 3.5% loss in April, while the Nasdaq is showing modest gains of about 0.9%.

Critical Economic Data Released Today

Today marks a significant day for economic data releases that could provide crucial insights into the health of the U.S. economy:

1. First Quarter GDP Report: The Bureau of Economic Analysis is releasing its advance estimate of first-quarter GDP growth today. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate an annualized growth rate of just 0.4%, adjusted for seasonality and inflation, which would represent a significant slowdown from the fourth quarter’s 2.4% pace. Several banks on Wall Street have already trimmed their GDP estimates, with some forecasting negative growth, raising concerns about a potential recession.

2. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index: The March PCE data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, is also due today. Economists expect no gain for March and a reading of 2.2% for headline inflation. The previous PCE reading showed inflation at 2.5% for February 2025, slightly above the Fed’s 2% target.

These economic indicators will be closely watched as they could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

Tech Giants Report Earnings After the Bell

After market close today, two tech behemoths will report their quarterly earnings, potentially moving markets tomorrow:

1. Microsoft (MSFT): The tech giant is scheduled to release its fiscal third-quarter results. Analysts expect earnings per share of $3.21 on revenues of $68.43 billion, compared to the previous year’s earnings of $2.94 per share on sales of $61.86 billion. Growth is projected to be primarily driven by Microsoft 365 products and the Intelligent Cloud segment, with Azure cloud offerings remaining a critical factor in the company’s long-term growth strategy.

2. Meta Platforms (META): The social media giant will report its first-quarter results. Consensus estimates predict earnings per share of $5.22 on revenue of $41.35 billion, representing double-digit growth compared to the previous year’s $4.71 EPS on $36.45 billion in revenue. Analysts will be watching for any commentary on ad pricing pressures, particularly related to reduced spending from Chinese companies like Temu and Shein due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Other Notable Earnings and Stock Movements

Several other companies are making headlines with their earnings reports and stock movements:

1. Starbucks (SBUX): Shares of the coffee giant slipped 4% after hours yesterday after missing earnings and revenue estimates for its fiscal second quarter. The company reported same-store sales figures that reflected a decline for the fifth straight quarter. Starbucks posted adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents on $8.76 billion in revenue, falling short of analyst expectations.

2. First Solar (FSLR): Shares of the solar technology company dropped 10% after offering weak guidance for the full year. The company sees earnings ranging between $12.50 and $17.50 per share, while analysts sought $18.14 per share.

3. Booking Holdings (BKNG): The online travel booking services provider saw its shares shed 3% despite beating top and bottom-line expectations, as gross bookings only narrowly topped estimates.

Trade Tensions and Tariff Developments

Recent developments in trade policy continue to influence market sentiment. The major averages ended Tuesday higher after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the White House was close to announcing a trade deal, though he didn’t specify the country. Later in the day, President Trump indicated that tariff negotiations with India are “coming along great” and that the U.S. could soon strike an agreement with the nation.

Additionally, President Trump recently signed an executive order to support automakers by preventing additional tariffs on foreign-made cars from being layered on top of existing tariffs. This move provided some relief to the auto sector, with shares of Ford (F), Tesla (TSLA), and General Motors (GM) all seeing gains.

Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment

Despite the recent volatility, there are signs of resilience in the market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted on Tuesday that “individual investors have held tight, while institutional investors have panicked” during the recent market turmoil. These retail investors have been buyers during this month’s sell-off, providing some stability.

However, some Wall Street strategists have become more cautious. HSBC head of Americas equity strategy Nicole Inui recently cut her S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600 from a prior forecast of 6,700, recommending clients position “defensively” as the market narrative continues to swing between fears over higher inflation, slower growth, and possibly a recession.

As we move into May, investors will be closely monitoring how the market digests today’s economic data and earnings reports, particularly from tech giants, as well as any further developments in trade negotiations and tariff policies.