Market Volatility Continues as Tariff Tensions Dominate Wall Street – April 11, 2025

Major Indexes Retreat After Historic Rally as Trade War Concerns Persist

The stock market experienced another day of significant volatility on Friday, April 11, 2025, as investors continued to process the implications of President Trump’s tariff policies. This follows a week of remarkable market swings, with the major indexes still showing signs of recovery despite today’s pullback.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at 39,985.00, up 188.00 points (0.47%) in pre-market trading, attempting to recover after Thursday’s steep 1,015-point (2.5%) decline. The S&P 500 futures are up 29.75 points (0.56%) at 5,331.75, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite futures have gained 115.25 points (0.62%) to 18,599.75.

Despite today’s early gains, the market remains well below pre-tariff announcement levels from early April, when President Trump declared April 2nd as “Liberation Day” and unveiled his sweeping tariff plans.

Trade War Escalation: China Retaliates with Higher Tariffs

Market sentiment took another hit early today as China announced it would raise additional tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, effective April 12. This retaliatory move comes after the White House clarified that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would rise to 145%, significantly escalating the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

China’s Commerce Ministry stated firmly: “If US insists on continuing to substantially infringe upon China’s rights, interests, China will resolutely counterattack and fight to the end.” The Chinese government has also filed a new complaint with the World Trade Organization against the latest U.S. tariff measures.

This intensification of trade tensions has caused wild swings in futures trading this morning, with the Dow futures fluctuating between gains and losses as investors assess the implications.

Tech Stocks Under Pressure as Supply Chain Concerns Mount

The technology sector has been particularly hard hit by the tariff turmoil, with the Nasdaq suffering a 4.31% decline on Thursday. Major tech companies with significant exposure to China saw substantial losses:

– Apple (AAPL) fell 4.24% on Thursday as investors worried about its extensive manufacturing presence in China.
– Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 5.91% amid concerns about semiconductor supply chains.
– Tesla (TSLA) plunged 7.27% as analysts slashed price targets due to tariff impacts on auto parts and weakening demand in China and Europe.
– Meta (META) declined 6.74% as market-wide selling pressure intensified.
– Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) saw declines of 8.4% and 7.7% respectively.

Despite Thursday’s steep declines, the major indexes remain on track to snap two-week losing streaks. Through Thursday’s close, the Dow is up 3.3% for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.8% and 5.1%, respectively.

Banking Sector in Focus as Earnings Season Begins

The first-quarter earnings season kicks off today with several major financial institutions reporting results:

– JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is scheduled to report with an estimated EPS of $4.63 compared to an actual $4.81 in the previous quarter.
– Wells Fargo (WFC) is expected to report an EPS of $1.23 versus $1.43 previously.
– Morgan Stanley (MS) is anticipated to post an EPS of $2.21 compared to $2.22 in the last quarter.
– Bank of New York Mellon (BK) is projected to report an EPS of $1.50 versus $1.54 previously.

Analysts at FactSet estimate a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 7.3% for S&P 500 companies, which would mark the seventh straight quarter of earnings growth. However, investor focus will likely be on forward guidance and how companies plan to navigate the uncertain trade environment.

Economic Data and Upcoming Events

Today’s economic calendar includes several important releases:

– Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m data for the United States
– Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
– GDP m/m data for the United Kingdom

Looking ahead to next week, investors will be watching China’s trade data on Saturday, April 12, with particular attention to exports and imports year-over-year figures. The European Central Bank’s ECOFIN meeting is also scheduled for the weekend, where discussions about the trade situation are expected to take center stage.

Safe Haven Assets Surge Amid Uncertainty

As market volatility continues, investors are increasingly turning to traditional safe-haven assets:

– Gold has reached a new high, currently trading at $3,229.10, up $51.60 (1.62%).
– The euro has soared to a three-year high against the dollar, rising as much as 1.6%.
– The Swiss franc has touched its highest level in a decade.

Market Outlook: Navigating the Tariff Turbulence

The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump earlier this week provided temporary relief, but market sentiment remains cautious as the China tariffs remain in place and have even been clarified at a higher level of 145%.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed Trump’s move to pause the reciprocal tariffs, calling it “an important step towards stabilizing the global economy.” The European Union has also temporarily paused its retaliatory tariffs on the United States, hoping to negotiate a trade agreement during the 90-day window.

However, economists warn that significant economic damage has already been done, with many suggesting there remains an elevated risk of a U.S. and global recession. The Eurogroup’s head, Paschal Donohoe, described the 90-day pause as a “window of opportunity” to “identify a negotiated alternative to a path that will lead us all to a world of lower growth, higher inflation, to many risks to the progress that we’ve made.”

As we move forward, market participants will be closely monitoring earnings reports, economic data releases, and any further developments in the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which continue to be the primary driver of market volatility.