Bond Large Caps; An Open Look At My Model Portfolio
By Jason Bond of JasonBondPicks.com
This is a very simple service with one goal in mind, BEAT THE STREET and build wealth! Bond Large Caps gives you… ACCESS to every single move I make as I manage a $100,000 real money portfolio. TOP RATED INVESTMENTS utilizing the same swing trading concepts I’ve mastered and applying to longer term large caps stocks. The goal is to hold an actively managed portfolio that can beat the S&P 500, a bold goal but I’m confident it’ll work which is why I’m putting REAL MONEY to prove it. Using the overall market as the benchmark, the model portfolio will consist of 5-12 different stocks at a time. Hold times will be a period of weeks (or even months) so it is PERFECT for less aggressive traders who need more flexibility with entry/exit points. You’ll usually receive 2 emails per week about why I’m looking at certain stocks. This will include key news events, technical analysis, insider buys/sells and other information I feel is pertinent to making a winning trade. There are two sections to Bond Large Caps, the model portfolio and an archive of the rebalancing.
Below is today’s update, some are short and sweet while others are more detailed.
LIKE us on Facebook
Genie Energy (NYSE:GNE) – As a provider of natural gas, oil and electricity, GNE is poised to benefit substantially from the continued bull market in energy. Geopolitical events underscore the potential for GNE to greatly outperform its substantially larger industry brethren. GNE is a veritable cash cow, with $98.6 million in the bank to finance continued operations at its Colorado oil project, and to cover only $27.4 million of liabilities listed on its balance sheet. All valuation metrics suggest a ‘ground-floor’ opportunity for potential high returns. Technically, the stock trades in a classic triangle pattern, with higher lows to indicate a major breakout could jettison, initially from short covering, and then continue higher brought on by momentum players of the breakout. Nearly half the stock’s float is held by institutions, including prestigious firms, such as Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street. I currently have 1,000 shares at $7.06 as seen in the portfolio.
Dunkin’ Brands Group (NASDAQ:DNKN) – As a well-established franchisor of quick-service restaurants, serving coffee and baked goods, the Dunkin’ Donuts brand ironically benefits from a contracting U.S. economy. Wall Street analysts note that the company is taking market share from its competitor Starbucks, a trend that is most likely to continue as the outlook for a U.S. recession remains widespread. DNKN’s EBITDA is a whopping 42.4 percent as of the latest reporting period, outpacing its competitors by a very wide margin. Technically, the stock attracted bargain hunters at $28 support. A break through its 50-day MA at $29.70 could trigger a short squeeze made up of approximately 12.3 percent of the float short the stock. Institutional holding dominate DNKN’s outstanding shares and the float. In addition, 31 percent of shares outstanding held by insiders and other large holders may suggest a high confidence level from professionals familiar with the company. Morgan Stanley raised its price target for DNKN to $36. I currently have 200 shares at $29.80 as seen in the portfolio.
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSE:EEM) – Forecasts for relative strength from economies of the BRICS, SE Asia and Latin America when compared with the U.S. and Europe economies are expected to attract money flows into EEM and other emerging markets financial vehicles. High-profile investors, such as Marc Faber of Marc Faber Ltd. and Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings, recommend emerging market equities which stand to benefit from China’s nearly $3 trillion reserve pool and relatively stronger emerging market currencies. PIMCO writes in Jun. 2012. “Over the secular horizon we believe emerging market investments in many cases may offer better fundamentals, the potential for higher yields and more compelling total returns than traditional developed world alternatives . . . We see Asian currencies at the center of this trend, led by the increased internationalization of the Chinese renminbi.” I currently have 200 shares at $39.60 as seen in the portfolio.
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) – With a lot of bad news regarding the handling of the IPO and questions surrounding its business model already discounted in the stock price of FB, shares of company received a boost in sentiment and price following news on Sep. 5 regarding its founder Mark Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg was quoted that he will not sell his shares at the end of the lock-up period due at the end of the year. Considering the lifted weight to sentiment of Zuckerberg’s hold on the sale of some or all of his 57 percent stake in the company, the Sep.3 announcement triggered some shorts to cover as well attracted bargain hunting at the $17.50 level the following day. On Sep. 5, the Wall Street Journal reported Jefferies & Co. initiated coverage of FB, instituting a “buy” for the stock, with a target price of $30. Technically, shares of FB appear oversold across several indicators. The MACD and Slow STO indicators now show a bullish reading, with the latter indicator recently triggering a buy signal and a rally from the lows. I currently have 300 shares at $18.20 as seen in the portfolio.
Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) – Whether the recent hiring of two key executives and earnings that beat the Street, shares of YHOO have moved sharply off the $14.50 level. Beginning in Oct. 2011, YHOO has traded within a $2 channel of $14.50 and $16.50, with trading on Wednesday taking the stock higher, triggering a buy signal after the stock price crossed the 20-day MA and the a buy signal was generated from the MACD. Unless any meaningful news is forthcoming or dramatic movements in the major averages, technical buying could be evident off the lows of the above-mentioned channel, with a target price of $16.50 indicated at the top channel. Jefferies & Co. said it initiated coverage of the stock, setting a target price of $17. Other well-followed technical indicators, MACD and Money flow Index, remain bullish. I currently have 500 shares at $14.91 as seen in the portfolio.
GSV Capital (NASDAQ:GSVC) – While media coverage of the ongoing sell off of Facebook (FB) shares following its IPO, investors reassessed the value of GSVC’s portfolio of mostly privately-held companies (including FB) and sold shares of GSVC aggressively in tandem with the rapid decline of FB shares. Many analyst suggest that the selloff in the stock went too far, and a rebound in shares of FB could, again, spillover to GSVC, but this time to the upside. The company’s portfolio consists of companies poised to benefit from ‘megatrends’. Technically, the MACD and Money Flow Index (MFI) both show technical rebounds, suggesting that the stock may have reached an important intermediate low. As of the close of the second quarter ending Jun. 30, GSVC holds stakes in the following companies: AltEgo, AlwaysOn, Avenues World Holdings, Bloom Energy, Chegg, Control4, CUX, Dailybreak, DreamBox Learning, Dropbox, Facebook, Fullbridge, Gilt Groupe, Global Education Learning, Grockit, Groupon, Kno, Maven Research, NestGSV, Palantir, Serious Energy, SharesPost, Silver Spring Networks, Solexel, StormWind, The Echo System, The rSmart Group, Top Hat, TrueCar, Twitter, Violin Memory, ZocDoc, ZoomSystems and Zynga. I am currently bidding 400 at $8.21.
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) – Following a 11-month period of downward consolidation in the gold market, prices of the precious metal are again on the rise. Expectations of further monetary intervention by the Fed, ECB and other major central banks have propelled gold approximately 10 percent higher from its intermediate low of $1,540. The GDX, a proxy for the gold price, was lifted by approximately 20 percent from its intermediate low of May. Conversely, a rise in the price of gold, historically, raises shares of gold mining stocks at a higher rate due to the impact of higher gold prices on the bottom line. Analysts such as Egon von Greyerz, James Turk, Jim Sinclair and Eric Sprott expect gold to breach $2,000 by the end of 2012, with von Greyersz, in particular, anticipating a double in the price of gold within 12 to 18 months. This implies a potential quadrupling in the price of the GDX during that time period. I am currently bidding 100 at $45.05.
Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) – Tesla designs, develops and manufactures electric vehicles and powertrain components. Forecasts of rising gasoline prices through 2032 and a 32 percent CAGR for the EV market, TSLA is expected to be a market leader in innovation and technologies to the industry. Co-founder of Tesla Motors, Elon Musk, told investors he projects that the company will turn a profit some time in 2013 with its Model S. At 8,000 vehicles sold representing breakeven, Musk anticipates sales of 20,000 next year, a fourfold increase from the 5,000 units sold by the close of 2012. The chart shows wild swings of the stock price, yet the stock trades within a well-defined upward-sloping channel, with successive higher lows on each downturn. That suggests moves to the upside could be quite dramatic if TSLA investors can see the company reaching its goals. Needham & Co. issued a target price for TSLA of $40 per share. I am currently bidding 200 at $27.80.
Demand Media (NYSE:DMD) – DMD provides some of the latest Internet technologies and advanced content “at scale” to its clients and company-owned websites. Emerging to profitability recently from three years of quarterly losses, DMD has steadily increased revenue and cut losses during each of three consecutive years, starting in 2009. Since falling below $6 during the month of February, the stock had more than doubled, briefly touching $12.50 during the month of August. The stock appears to have attracted technical players, as the MACD and Slow STO indicators reveal a turnaround from the recent sell off and subsequent oversold reading may in progress. A whopping 80 percent of shares on the float are held by institutions, including Goldman Sachs, coming in at the top of the list at 7.28 percent outstanding. An equally impressive 65 percent of shares outstanding are held by insiders and 5+ percent holders. I am currently bidding 500 at $9.10.
Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) – The stock of casino and hotel operator Wynn Resorts has plunged as reports from China continue to reveal a steeper decline in economic activity than anticipated, but the stock now trades at a relatively low 16-time earnings, while the PEG ratio hovers at a modestly healthy 1.3. Betting on China and its growing middle and upper classes, Wynn’s Macao casino and hotel assets now generate approximately 70 percent of company revenue. WYNN is well-positioned for exploding earnings from China’s Macao, as its central bank eases monetary policy and focuses upon the country’s lagging domestic economy for overall future GDP growth. Technically, the chart shows the stock price settling down near its 40-day MA, while the 20-day MA still remains well above the 40-day MA. While the MACD indicates selling pressure, the SLOW STO has entered an oversold condition. I am currently bidding 75 at $92.10.
J.C. Penney Company (NYSE:JCP) – JCP’s stock performance for the first half of 2012 was a complete disaster. Trading as high as $42 per share in February, the stock had dropped approximately 50 percent, reaching a low of $19 in July, while the S&P is little changed from the beginning of the year. JCP’s outlook is still unclear, according to analysts, but the stock’s overzealous shorts sold 41.5 percent, nearly half the float and have the obligation to buy the shares back at a later date. Since mid-July, the stock has rebounded $26.43 from $19 in what appears to be a massive short squeeze. With approximately 57 million shares still short, this short squeeze could take on a life of its own outside of the stock’s fundamentals. Institutions dominate the shareholder list, including Evercore, Vanguard, HSBC, Janus, Deutsche Bank, Dodge & Cox, Fidelity and T. Rowe Price. Technically, the chart looks very bullish, with the 20-day MA comfortably above the 40-day MA as well as price action forming a clean and steep upward channel. I am currently bidding 500 at $21.20.
STMicroelectronics N.V. (NYSE:STM) – Grossly under-performing both the semiconductor index and the S&P since the open of 2012, STM has undergone a 7-week rally from the May low of $4.50. Analysts covering the stock vastly disagree on the outlook for STM, with only one analyst altering his recommendation since Mar. 2011. Institutional holdings and the number of shares previously sold short are nearly nonexistent. Though investors and analysts cite STM’s challenges, the stock trades at a remarkably low 0.59 Price/Sales and 0.75 Price/Book. The share price sells for a 30 and 33 percent discount to book value and enterprise value, respectively Moreover, the company reports $2.06 billion in cash, or $2.33 per share. Technically, the stock completed a double bottom in July at $4.50 and has turned up, prompting chartists to set a new target price of $7.50. I am currently bidding 1,000 at $4.31.
Join our family of traders today
By Jason Bond of JasonBondPicks.com
More Posts by this author
- Should You Buy VRNG Stock?
- Bond Large Caps; An Open Look At My Model Portfolio
- Is PRTN headed for $0? You decide.
- Prepare For Liftoff; 7 Penny Stocks About To Take Flight
- 5 Accumulation Plays Under $3 Poised To Pop
- Is GEVO A Double From Down Here?
- VRNG Stock To Jump 1000%? Is Altucher Right?
| . |
Post Written By: Jason Bond
|
