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High volatility expected next week. Tuesday brings ADP, GDP, and the critical FOMC rate decision/press conference, influencing Fed policy. Inflation data via Core PCE arrives Wednesday. Friday features key jobs data (NFP, Average Hourly Earnings) and ISM Manufacturing PMI, crucial for market direction and rate outlook. Traders should brace for significant swings.

Today - Sep 11

8:30a

Initial Jobless Claims

act

N/A

exp

235K

237K

8:30a

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)

act

N/A

exp

0.3

8:30a

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

act

N/A

exp

2.9

2.7

8:30a

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

act

N/A

exp

3.1

8:30a

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

act

N/A

exp

0.3

0.2

2:00p

Monthly Budget Statement

act

N/A

exp

-281B

-291B

Fri - Sep 12

10:00a

UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation

act

N/A

exp

N/A

3.5

10:00a

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

act

N/A

exp

58.2

10:00a

UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations

act

N/A

exp

N/A

4.8

10:00a

Michigan Consumer Expectations Index

act

N/A

exp

N/A

55.9

Mon - Sep 15

8:30a

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

act

N/A

exp

N/A

11.9

Tue - Sep 16

8:30a

Retail Sales Control Group

act

N/A

exp

N/A

0.5

8:30a

Retail Sales (MoM)

act

N/A

exp

N/A

0.5

8:30a

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)

act

N/A

exp

N/A

0.3

9:15a

Industrial Production (MoM)

act

N/A

exp

N/A

-0.1

Wed - Sep 17

8:30a

Housing Starts (MoM)

act

N/A

exp

N/A

1.43M

8:30a

Building Permits (MoM)

act

N/A

exp

N/A

1.35M

2:00p

Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year

act

N/A

exp

N/A

3.1

2:00p

FOMC Economic Projections

act

N/A

exp

N/A

2:00p

Interest Rate Projections - 1st year

act

N/A

exp

N/A

3.6

2:00p

Fed Monetary Policy Statement

2:00p

Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year

act

N/A

exp

N/A

3.4

2:00p

Interest Rate Projections - Current

act

N/A

exp

N/A

3.9

2:00p

Fed Interest Rate Decision

act

N/A

exp

4.25

4.5

2:30p

FOMC Press Conference

Upcoming Earnings

The week's major earnings begin Monday with financials and real estate, including Welltower after close. Tuesday is dense with healthcare giants UnitedHealth Group, AstraZeneca, Merck pre-market, plus industrial leaders Boeing and UPS. Tech titans Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday after close. Thursday features Mastercard, with Apple and Amazon after close. Friday concludes with energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron pre-market.

Sep 10/b

CHWY

Sep 11/b

Sep 11/a

ADBE

Sep 16/b

FERG

Sep 17/b

GIS

Sep 17/a

BLSH

Sep 18/b

DRI

FDS

Sep 18/a

FDX

LEN

LEN.B

Analyst Updates

Homebuilding and Cruise Line sectors lead with strong buy ratings. Homebuilders (TOL, TMHC, PHM) and cruise lines (CCL, NCLH, RCL) saw multiple upgrades or new strong buys across Monday and Tuesday. Large-cap tech names Arista Networks (ANET) and Coinbase (COIN) also received strong buy ratings. Conversely, American Express (AXP), Target (TGT), and Unity Software (U) faced notable strong sell downgrades, signaling caution in these areas.