Stock Market Today: November 4, 2024 – Markets Await Fed Decision and Election Results
The stock market is on edge today, Monday, November 4, 2024, as investors anxiously await two major events that could significantly impact market direction: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the U.S. presidential election.
Current Market Performance
As of 2:00 PM EST, the major market indexes are showing mixed performance:
– The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up 0.3% at 42,178.54
– The S&P 500 is down 0.1% at 5,722.08
– The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.2% at 18,275.84
The market’s cautious stance reflects the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming events and their potential impact on the economy and corporate earnings.
Fed Decision Looms
Investors are keenly focused on the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which begins tomorrow, November 5. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a high probability of another interest rate cut, following the 25 basis point reduction in September. This expectation has been fueled by recent economic data, including the weaker-than-expected October jobs report released last Friday.
Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, commented, “While the labor market showed significant deceleration in October, the Fed will likely consider this a temporary blip due to external factors such as hurricanes and labor strikes. We still anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at this week’s meeting.”
Election Uncertainty
The U.S. presidential election, scheduled for tomorrow, has introduced an additional layer of volatility to the markets. Investors are closely watching polls and projections, as the outcome could have significant implications for fiscal policy, regulation, and international trade relations.
Earnings Season Continues
While political and monetary policy events dominate headlines, the third-quarter earnings season is still in full swing. Notable companies reporting this week include:
– Nvidia (NVDA): The chipmaker is set to report on Wednesday, with investors eager to see if the AI boom continues to drive growth.
– Walt Disney (DIS): The entertainment giant reports on Thursday, with focus on streaming subscriber numbers and theme park performance.
– Alibaba (BABA): The Chinese e-commerce company’s earnings on Friday will provide insights into consumer spending in Asia.
Sector Performance and Stock Movements
Today’s market action shows varied performance across sectors:
– Technology: The sector is showing resilience, with Apple (AAPL) up 1.2% and Microsoft (MSFT) gaining 0.8%.
– Energy: Oil prices have edged higher, boosting energy stocks. ExxonMobil (XOM) is up 1.5%.
– Financials: Banks are mixed as investors gauge the impact of potential rate cuts. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down 0.3%, while Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 0.7%.
Looking Ahead
Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory, notes, “The market remains heavily influenced by megacap tech stocks. While we’re seeing some broadening of market leadership, these giants still wag the dog of the overall market.”
As we move through this pivotal week, investors should brace for potential volatility. The combination of the Fed’s decision, election results, and ongoing earnings reports could lead to significant market movements in the coming days.
Key Economic Data to Watch
In addition to the Fed meeting and election results, investors will be closely monitoring several economic reports this week:
– Tuesday: ISM Services Index for October
– Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
– Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims
– Friday: Consumer Sentiment Index
These reports will provide further insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could influence both Fed policy and market sentiment.
In conclusion, the stock market is navigating a complex landscape of monetary policy, political uncertainty, and corporate earnings. Investors should stay alert to rapid changes and be prepared for potential market swings as these critical events unfold.
