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Market Overview
U.S. stock futures are pointing higher Wednesday morning, June 18, 2025, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision while keeping a watchful eye on ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 0.2%, S&P 500 futures have gained 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are advancing 0.3%.
The major indexes are looking to recover after Tuesday’s pullback, when all three benchmarks finished nearly 1% lower amid escalating concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict. Oil prices, which spiked on Tuesday, are showing signs of stabilization this morning, falling 0.3% to around $72.60 per barrel.
Fed Decision in Focus
All eyes on Powell
Today’s main event is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement, scheduled for 2:00 PM Eastern Time, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The central bank is widely expected to maintain its benchmark rate at the current 4.5% level.
Market participants will scrutinize the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), particularly the “dot plot” that shows policymakers’ rate expectations. In March, officials projected two quarter-point cuts for 2025, but analysts now believe this could be reduced to just one reduction amid persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty about the impact of tariffs.
“The Fed’s commentary on inflation, economic growth, and future rate path will be crucial for market direction in the coming weeks,” said a market strategist at a major investment bank. “Any shift in tone could trigger significant volatility.”
Earnings Spotlight
Several companies are reporting earnings before the market opens today, providing insights into various sectors of the economy.
Korn Ferry (KFY) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.25 per share, representing a slight decrease from the same period last year. The staffing company has met or exceeded analyst expectations in recent quarters.
GMS Inc. (GMS), a building materials supplier, is projected to post earnings of $1.15 per share, down significantly from the previous year as the construction sector continues to face challenges.
Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) is anticipated to report earnings of $0.11 per share, with analysts watching closely for signs of improvement in the competitive cannabis market.
Tech Sector Update
Technology stocks, which have shown mixed performance in 2025, remain in focus as investors assess their valuations amid changing interest rate expectations and ongoing trade tensions.
Nvidia (NVDA) has been showing strength recently, trading well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages following a bullish move in recent weeks. The AI chipmaker’s CEO Jensen Huang expressed confidence that President Trump will make decisions supporting the U.S. AI industry, stating, “The president has a plan. He has a vision and I trust him.”
Apple (AAPL) shares are attempting to build momentum after struggling earlier this year, with the stock down 18.6% year-to-date. The iPhone maker faces ongoing challenges related to potential tariff impacts on its hardware sales and legal cases affecting its services business.
Microsoft (MSFT) has been a relative outperformer among tech giants, up 11.6% this year after crushing Wall Street’s targets for its fiscal third quarter. The company’s cloud business continues to drive growth despite broader market volatility.
Global Markets and Economic Data
Overseas markets are showing mixed results as global investors process the same concerns facing U.S. traders. European markets are cautiously higher, while Asian markets closed with modest gains.
On the economic data front, the UK reported its inflation rate for May at 3.5% year-over-year, unchanged from the previous month and slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.4%. Core inflation remained elevated at 3.8%.
Later today, the U.S. Treasury will release data on net long-term TIC flows and overall net capital flows for April, providing insights into foreign investment in U.S. securities.
Middle East Tensions
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran continues to influence market sentiment. President Trump’s recent comments have added uncertainty, as he suggested Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is an “easy target,” but added that the U.S. won’t take action “at least not yet.”
Oil markets remain particularly sensitive to developments in the region, with concerns about potential supply disruptions through facility damage or shipping route closures. Analysts warn that a sustained rise in oil prices could increase fuel costs, potentially spurring inflation and hindering economic growth.
Looking Ahead
Beyond today’s Fed decision, investors will be watching Thursday’s economic calendar, which includes Australian employment data and U.S. jobless claims figures.
Market strategists suggest that the combination of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy decisions, and upcoming economic data could lead to increased volatility in the days ahead. As one analyst noted, “We’re at a critical juncture where multiple factors are converging to shape market direction for the remainder of 2025.”

Ed Liston is a senior contributing editor at TheStockMarketWatch.com. An active market watcher and investor, Ed guides an independent team of experienced analysts and writes for multiple stock trader publications.