Stock Market Today: Election Day Jitters and Fed Watch
As investors brace for the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate decision, the stock market is showing signs of cautious optimism on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. With major indexes holding steady and key economic data on the horizon, today’s market activity reflects a delicate balance between political uncertainty and economic anticipation.
Market Performance
As of midday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) remains flat, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shows a slight gain of 0.1%. This mixed performance comes after a period of volatility, with the Nasdaq snapping a seven-week winning streak in the previous session.
Election Impact
The presidential election, widely regarded as a dead heat by pollsters, is the primary focus for investors today. Bookmaker odds on a Republican “clean sweep” of the presidency and both houses of Congress have lengthened compared to last week, suggesting that political gridlock may be the most likely outcome. This scenario could potentially ease concerns about drastic fiscal policy changes, regardless of who wins the White House.
Federal Reserve Watch
Investors are also keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, expected on Thursday. Market expectations are heavily leaning towards a second rate cut of the year, which could provide further support for equities. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting.
Key Economic Data
Today’s economic calendar includes the release of the October ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a crucial indicator of the health of the non-manufacturing sector. Economists expect a slight decline to 53.8 from the previous month’s 54.9, still indicating expansion in the services sector.
Corporate Earnings in Focus
Several major companies are set to report their quarterly earnings today, including:
1. Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
2. DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)
3. Emerson Electric Co (EMR)
4. Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)
5. Devon Energy Corp (DVN)
These reports will provide valuable insights into various sectors of the economy and may influence market sentiment.
Notable Stock Movements
– Nvidia (NVDA) shares are up 2% following the announcement that it will replace Intel (INTC) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average later this week. This move has propelled Nvidia to surpass Apple (AAPL) as the world’s most valuable company by market capitalization.
– Sherwin-Williams (SHW) stock has risen nearly 4% on news of its inclusion in the Dow, replacing Dow Inc. (DOW).
– Boeing (BA) shares are up 2% after U.S. West Coast factory workers accepted a new contract offer, ending a seven-week strike that had halted most jet production.
Global Market Influences
International markets are showing resilience, with Chinese mainland and Hong Kong benchmarks outperforming. This comes after reports that China’s services activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months in October, signaling that Beijing’s stimulus efforts may be gaining traction.
Market Volatility Measures
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the “fear index,” stands at 22, significantly lower than during previous election cycles. This suggests that while uncertainty exists, investors are not panicking ahead of the election results.
Looking Ahead
As election results begin to trickle in overnight, market participants should be prepared for potential volatility. Key battleground states like Pennsylvania may take several days to report final tallies, which could prolong market uncertainty.
In conclusion, the stock market on November 5, 2024, reflects a cautious but resilient stance as investors navigate the dual impacts of the presidential election and anticipated Fed action. With corporate earnings, economic data, and global market influences all in play, today’s trading session sets the stage for what could be a pivotal week in financial markets.
