Grok AI (Grok 3) $100k Portfolio Investment Strategy – June 2025

By / / Initial Investment Plan

GROK 100k Portfolio Strategy

Quick AI Contest Intro: Four leading AIs. One challenge : Turn $100k into maximum returns with medium-high risk tolerance. 💪 Using ChatGPT-4.5, Claude 4 Opus, Google Gemini Pro, and Grok’s top models (all with deep research enabled), I tasked each with building and monthly rebalancing a portfolio. Let’s see how each AI allocated their initial $100k.

Long-Term Medium to High-Risk US Equities Portfolio

✨ You can dynamically track Grok’s AI trading performance here.

Overview

This portfolio allocates $100,000 across a mix of US equities, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and individual stocks, to achieve long-term growth with a medium to high-risk tolerance. The portfolio is designed to be rebalanced monthly to maintain target allocations, leveraging current market trends, seasonality, and macro events as of June 14, 2025. The investments span six key sectors: technology, consumer discretionary, small caps, healthcare, renewable energy, and financials, reflecting growth opportunities and economic conditions.

Portfolio Allocation

The portfolio is divided into ETFs (70%) and individual stocks (30%) to balance broad market exposure with targeted growth opportunities. The allocation is as follows:

Investment

Ticker

Sector

Allocation

Amount ($)

Invesco QQQ Trust

QQQ

Technology

 17.5% 17,500

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund

XLY

Consumer Discretionary

 14% 14,000

iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM

Small Caps

 10.5% 10,500

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund

XLV

Healthcare

 10.5% 10,500

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund

QCLN

Renewable Energy

 7% 7,000

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

XLF

Financials

 10.5% 10,500

NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA

Technology

 7.5% 7,500

Tesla, Inc.

TSLA

Consumer Discretionary

 7.5% 7,500

Moderna, Inc.

MRNA

Healthcare

 7.5% 7,500

Enphase Energy, Inc.

ENPH

Renewable Energy

 7.5% 7,500

Total

 100% 100,000

Investment Rationale and Analysis

Technology Sector

Investments: Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Rationale: The technology sector is poised for significant growth, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and cybersecurity. According to MarketsandMarkets, the AI market is projected to grow from USD 371.71 billion in 2025 to USD 2,407.02 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 30.6%. This growth is fueled by the democratization of AI through cloud-native platforms from companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, which are key holdings in QQQ. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, providing exposure to leading tech firms with strong growth prospects. In May 2025, the technology sector was the highest performer, up 10.30%, as reported by Morningstar. NVIDIA, a leader in AI hardware, is included for its dominant role in providing GPUs for machine learning and data centers, positioning it to capitalize on the AI boom. Despite recent market volatility due to tariff policies, as noted by Charles Schwab, the long-term outlook for technology remains robust.

Price Targets and Timeframe: Over a 5-year horizon, QQQ is expected to achieve annualized returns of 10-15%, in line with historical Nasdaq-100 performance. NVDA, given its leadership in AI, may outperform the sector with potential annualized returns of 20-30%, though subject to higher volatility. Monthly rebalancing will help manage exposure to market fluctuations.

Consumer Discretionary Sector

Investments: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Rationale: The consumer discretionary sector benefits from trends in e-commerce and electric vehicles (EVs). The global e-commerce market is projected to reach USD 10.19 trillion in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 15.80% to USD 21.22 trillion by 2030, according to Mordor Intelligence. XLY includes Amazon, a leader in e-commerce and cloud services, which continues to drive growth through its expansive online marketplace. The EV market is also expanding rapidly, with global sales expected to surpass 20 million in 2025, representing over 25% of global car sales, as per the IEA Global EV Outlook 2025. Tesla, included both in XLY and as an individual stock, is a pioneer in EVs with a strong market share and innovative technology. Despite tariff-related uncertainties impacting global supply chains, as highlighted by Charles Schwab, the long-term growth potential in e-commerce and EVs supports this allocation.

Price Targets and Timeframe: XLY is expected to deliver annualized returns of 8-12% over 5 years, reflecting the sector’s cyclical nature. TSLA, with its leadership in EVs, may achieve annualized returns of 20-25%, though it faces risks from policy changes, such as potential reductions in US EV subsidies. Monthly rebalancing will adjust for sector volatility.

Small Caps

Investment: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

Rationale: Small-cap stocks are currently undervalued, trading at a discount compared to large caps, and are expected to see robust earnings growth of 42% in 2025 and 36% in 2026, as per BNP Paribas. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF provides diversified exposure to small-cap companies, which benefit from lower interest rates and increased merger and acquisition activity. The American Century report suggests that small caps could outperform as earnings growth broadens beyond mega-cap tech stocks. Despite higher volatility, small caps align with the portfolio’s high-risk tolerance and offer significant growth potential.

Price Targets and Timeframe: IWM is expected to achieve annualized returns of 12-15% over 5 years, supported by strong earnings growth projections. Monthly rebalancing will help capture upside potential while managing risk.

Healthcare Sector

Investments: Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV), Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

Rationale: The healthcare sector is poised for steady growth due to an aging population, increasing healthcare spending, and innovations in biotechnology and AI-driven healthcare solutions. A Deloitte survey indicates that 60% of US healthcare executives expect revenue growth and improved profitability in 2025. XLV provides broad exposure to pharmaceuticals, biotech, and medical devices, which are resilient to economic slowdowns projected for Q4 2025 by EY. Moderna is included for its pioneering mRNA technology, with applications beyond COVID-19 vaccines, such as cancer therapies, as noted by KPMG. The sector’s defensive nature balances the portfolio’s risk profile.

Price Targets and Timeframe: XLV is expected to deliver annualized returns of 8-12% over 5 years, reflecting its stability. MRNA, with its high-growth potential, may achieve annualized returns of 15-25%, though it carries higher risk due to clinical trial uncertainties. Monthly rebalancing will maintain optimal exposure.

Renewable Energy Sector

Investments: First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN), Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)

Rationale: The renewable energy sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by global efforts to combat climate change. The global renewable energy market is projected to reach USD 1.74 trillion in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 17.23% to USD 7.28 trillion by 2034, according to Precedence Research. QCLN tracks companies in solar, wind, and other clean energy technologies, benefiting from increased demand for sustainable energy solutions, particularly for AI data centers, as noted by Deloitte. Enphase Energy, a leader in solar microinverters, is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing adoption of solar energy. Despite tariff-related risks impacting commodity demand, as per the World Economic Forum, the long-term outlook for renewables is strong.

Price Targets and Timeframe: QCLN is expected to achieve annualized returns of 10-15% over 5 years, driven by sector growth. ENPH, with its focus on solar technology, may deliver annualized returns of 15-20%, though subject to volatility from policy changes. Monthly rebalancing will adjust for sector dynamics.

Financial Sector

Investment: Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)

Rationale: The financial sector is expected to benefit from higher US interest rates, projected to remain around 4% in 2025, as per J.P. Morgan. Higher rates improve net interest margins for banks, as noted by Fidelity. XLF includes major banks and insurance companies, which are likely to see improved profitability in a growing economy. However, risks such as rising delinquencies in consumer loans and distress in commercial real estate, as highlighted by Deloitte, are considered. The sector’s cyclical nature complements the portfolio’s growth focus.

Price Targets and Timeframe: XLF is expected to deliver annualized returns of 8-12% over 5 years, supported by economic growth and favorable interest rate conditions. Monthly rebalancing will manage exposure to economic cycles.

Market Trends and Macro Events

  • AI Growth: The rapid expansion of AI applications across industries supports the technology sector’s inclusion, with significant investments projected to reach USD 200 billion by 2025, according to Fortune Business Insights.

  • Economic Slowdown: An anticipated GDP growth slowdown to 0.6% by Q4 2025, as per EY, supports the inclusion of defensive sectors like healthcare.

  • Tariff Policies: Ongoing tariff uncertainties, as noted by Charles Schwab, may impact technology and consumer discretionary sectors due to global supply chain disruptions, but the long-term growth outlook remains positive.

  • Interest Rates: Higher US interest rates compared to Europe (4% vs. below 2%) benefit financials, as per J.P. Morgan.

  • Seasonality: While June historically sees strong performance in certain sectors like energy, as per StoneX, the long-term focus reduces the impact of seasonal trends.

Risk Considerations

  • Tariff Risks: Tariff policies may increase costs for technology and consumer discretionary companies with global supply chains.

  • Economic Slowdown: A projected slowdown in Q4 2025 could impact cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary and financials.

  • Volatility in Small Caps: Small caps offer high growth potential but are more volatile, as noted by Forbes.

  • Policy Changes: Potential reductions in EV subsidies or changes in renewable energy policies could affect TSLA and ENPH.

Rebalancing Strategy

The portfolio will be rebalanced monthly to maintain the target allocations, ensuring that no single sector or stock dominates the portfolio’s risk profile. This strategy allows for adjustments based on market movements, such as sector outperformance or underperformance, while maintaining the long-term growth focus.

Expected Performance

The portfolio is designed to achieve annualized returns of 15-20% over a 5-year horizon, based on historical sector performance and current growth projections. Individual stocks like NVDA, TSLA, MRNA, and ENPH are expected to outperform their respective sectors due to their leadership in high-growth areas, though they carry higher volatility. ETFs provide stability and diversification, balancing the portfolio’s risk profile.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. We are not financial professionals. The authors and/or site operators may hold positions in the companies or assets mentioned. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.