U.S. Economic Calendar Event Update – Jun 25

These are the U.S. economic calendar events for Tuesday, June 25, 2013. All times are EST.

Durable Orders for May are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 3%. The prior period for Durable Orders had a result of 3.5%. This event has a major effect on US markets.

Durable Orders -ex Transportation for May are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of -0.5%. The prior period for Durable Orders -ex Transportation had a result of 1.5%. This event has a major effect on US markets.

Case-Shiller 20-city Index for Apr are scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 10.5%. The prior period for Case-Shiller 20-city Index had a result of 10.9%. This event has a low effect on US markets.

FHFA Home Price Index for Apr are scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM. The prior period for FHFA Home Price Index had a result of 1.3%. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Consumer Confidence for Jun are scheduled to be released at 10:00 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 75. The prior period for Consumer Confidence had a result of 76.2. This event has a major effect on US markets.

New Home Sales for May are scheduled to be released at 10:00 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 460K. The prior period for New Home Sales had a result of 454K. This event has a moderate effect on US markets.

At the release of important events, US equity markets (INDEXSP:.INX) can make major moves. Be sure to keep an eye on S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq (NYSEARCA:QQQ) and Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) at the time of announcements.

Here is some more information about the events discussion in this article.

Durable Orders: The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broadbased increases in orders. Also notable in this report is the narrow category of nondefense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers’ durable equipment (PDE) — the largest component of business investment. Shipments of nondefense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while nondefense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.

Durable Orders -ex Transportation: Same as the Durable Orders report, except it excludes order relating to transportation.

Case-Shiller 20-city Index: This report examines changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 regions across the US. This report serves as an indicator for the health of the US housing market.

FHFA Home Price Index: The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It serves as a timely, accurate indicator of house price trends at various geographic levels. It also provides housing economists with an analytical tool that is useful for estimating changes in the rates of mortgage defaults, prepayments and housing affordability in specific geographic areas. The HPI is a measure designed to capture changes in the value of single-family houses in the U.S. as a whole, in various regions and in smaller areas. The HPI is published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), one of FHFA’s predecessor agencies, began publishing the HPI in the fourth quarter of 1995. How is the Home Price Index updated? Each month, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide FHFA with information on their most recent mortgage transactions. These data are combined with the data from previous periods to establish price differentials on properties where more than one mortgage transaction has occurred. The data are merged, creating an updated historical database that is then used to estimate the HPI.

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of 5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two subindexes – consumers’ appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index.

New Home Sales: The report indicates the level of new privately owned one-family houses sold and for sale. New home sales usually have a lagged reaction to changing mortgage rates. They also tend to be stronger early in the business cycle when pent-up demand is strong, and they fade later in the cycle as the demand for housing is sated. In addition to home sales, the market monitors the number of homes for sale relative to the current sales pace. As this inventory measure falls (rises), housing starts tend to rise (fall). Finally, the median home price provides an indication of inflation in the housing sector, though only year/year changes provide any meaningful information. The home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions, making any one month’s reading very unreliable. The report rarely prompts a market reaction. The market prefers the existing home sales report, which has a sample data pool four times as large and is released earlier in the month.

Alex Fredricks

Alex Fredricks

Alex Fredricks has a degree in business and is an avid day-trader. Alex's experience and love for the game of the markets is shown not only in his posts, but the post he helps edit for other authors on our staff.