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U.S. Economic Calendar Event Update - Jan 3

Thursday, January 3, 2013 8:47 AM

These are the U.S. economic calendar events for Thursday, January 03, 2013. All times are EST.

MBA Purchase Index for the week ending on 12/29 are scheduled to be released at 7:00 AM. The prior period for MBA Purchase Index had a result of -12.3%. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Challenger Job Cuts for Dec are scheduled to be released at 7:30 AM. The prior period for Challenger Job Cuts had a result of 34.4%. This event has a low effect on US markets.

ADP Employment Report for Dec are scheduled to be released at 8:15 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 140K. The prior period for ADP Employment Report had a result of 118K. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Continuing Claims for the week ending on 12/22 are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 3200K. The prior period for Continuing Claims had a result of 3206K. This event has a moderate effect on US markets.

Initial Claims for the week ending on 12/29 are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 365K. The prior period for Initial Claims had a result of 350K. This event has a moderate effect on US markets.

Truck Sales for Dec are scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM. The prior period for Truck Sales had a result of 6.5. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Auto Sales for Dec are scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM. The prior period for Auto Sales had a result of 5.6. This event has a low effect on US markets.

FOMC Minutes for the week ending on 12/12 are scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM. This event has a major effect on US markets.

At the release of important events, US equity markets (INDEXSP:.INX) can make major moves. Be sure to keep an eye on S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq (NYSEARCA:QQQ) and Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) at the time of announcements.

Here is some more information about the events discussion in this article.

MBA Purchase Index: Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US . Tracking new home mortgages and refinances, MBA Mortgage Applications Survey serves at a current indicator for the US housing market. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. The headline figure is the weekly percentage change in the MBA Mortgage Applications figure. Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed. The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications.

Challenger Job Cuts: A report, released monthly, that provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs. The Challenger Job-Cut Report is produced by Challenger, Grey & Christmas and tracks layoffs by industry and region. The report is an indicator used by investors to determine the strength of the labor market.

ADP Employment Report: The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth.

Continuing Claims: An indicator derived from weekly unemployment data used to gauge the current state and direction of employment. The data, supplied by the Department of Labor, consists of those people who have filed a claim and who are still receiving benefits. Critics point to the volatility of the data which makes it somewhat imprecise as a snapshot of employment conditions. When combined with other indicators onto a four-week moving average, it provides a clearer indication. Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/continuing-An indicator derived from weekly unemployment data used to gauge the current state and direction of employment. The data, supplied by the Department of Labor, consists of those people who have filed a claim and who are still receiving benefits. Critics point to the volatility of the data which makes it somewhat imprecise as a snapshot of employment conditions. When combined with other indicators onto a four-week moving average, it provides a clearer indication.

Initial Claims: Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signalling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile, and many analysts therefore track a four week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. It typically takes a sustained move of at least 30K in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth. There are two other statistics in this report -- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state benefits from month to month as a guide for job growth, though this series has a poor track record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the market.

Truck Sales: Auto and Truck Sales measure the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. They are considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. Demand for big ticket items such as autos and trucks tends to be interest rate sensitive, making the motor vehicle sector a leading indicator of business cycles.

Each auto maker reports sales individually. The reports are typically released over the course of the first three business days of the month. Using the individual reports, a total annual sales pace can be calculated after applying Commerce Department seasonal factors. It is this annual sales pace that the market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month.

Auto Sales: Auto and Truck Sales measure the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. They are considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. Demand for big ticket items such as autos and trucks tends to be interest rate sensitive, making the motor vehicle sector a leading indicator of business cycles.

Each auto maker reports sales individually. The reports are typically released over the course of the first three business days of the month. Using the individual reports, a total annual sales pace can be calculated after applying Commerce Department seasonal factors. It is this annual sales pace that the market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month.

FOMC Minutes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began publishing the minutes for its monetary policy meetings in 2005. The detailed minutes from these meetings give some of the best insight into the monetary policy decision making process and what the FED thinks about economic developments inside and outside of the US . Markets tend to focus most of their attention on the key points discussed during the meeting that suggest future interest rate changes. For example if the minutes state that high energy costs and a rapidly expanding housing market are fueling inflation, then markets participants will tend to monitor these key sectors closely in order to gauge the likelihood of a rate increases in the future. Because minutes come out three weeks after the FOMC meets, markets will discount some information in the report. Market participants tend to read into the overall mood the Federal Reserve gives during the meeting. If the FOMC is cautious about the inflationary outlook for the economy (characterized as "Hawkish"), then the market has a higher likelihood of future rate increases. If the Bank is optimistic ("Dovish") it suggests to markets that inflation is in check and that future rate increases are less likely.

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