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U.S. Economic Calendar Event Update - Feb 1

Friday, February 1, 2013 8:50 AM

These are the U.S. economic calendar events for Friday, February 01, 2013. All times are EST.

Nonfarm Payrolls for Jan are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 180K. The prior period for Nonfarm Payrolls had a result of 155K. This event has a major effect on US markets.

Nonfarm Private Payrolls for Jan are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 193K. The prior period for Nonfarm Private Payrolls had a result of 168K. This event has a major effect on US markets.

Unemployment Rate for Jan are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 7.7%. The prior period for Unemployment Rate had a result of 7.8%. This event has a major effect on US markets.

Hourly Earnings for Jan are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 0.2%. The prior period for Hourly Earnings had a result of 0.3%. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Average Workweek for Jan are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 34.5. The prior period for Average Workweek had a result of 34.5. This event has a major effect on US markets.

Michigan Sentiment for Jan are scheduled to be released at 9:55 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 71.4. The prior period for Michigan Sentiment had a result of 71.3. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Construction Spending for Dec are scheduled to be released at 10:00 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 0.5%. The prior period for Construction Spending had a result of -0.3%. This event has a low effect on US markets.

ISM Index for Jan are scheduled to be released at 10:00 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 50.5. The prior period for ISM Index had a result of 50.7. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Truck Sales for Jan are scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM. The prior period for Truck Sales had a result of 6.5. This event has a low effect on US markets.

Auto Sales for Jan are scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM. The prior period for Auto Sales had a result of 5.5. This event has a low effect on US markets.

At the release of important events, US equity markets (INDEXSP:.INX) can make major moves. Be sure to keep an eye on S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq (NYSEARCA:QQQ) and Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) at the time of announcements.

Here is some more information about the events discussion in this article.

Nonfarm Payrolls: The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile.

Nonfarm Private Payrolls: The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile.

Unemployment Rate: The Unemployment Rate released by the US Department of Labor is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force.

Hourly Earnings: Each month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.

Average Workweek: The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month. The reports both measure employment levels, just from different angles. Due to the vastly different size of the survey samples (the establishment survey not only surveys more businesses, but each business employs many individuals), the measures of employment may differ markedly from month to month. The household survey is used only for the unemployment measure - the market focusses primarily on the more comprehensive establishment survey. Together, these two surveys make up the employment report, the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month. Total payrolls are broken down into sectors such as manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The markets follows these components closely as indicators of the trends in sectors of the economy; the manufacturing sector is watched the most closely as it often leads the business cycle. The data also include breakdowns of hours worked, overtime, and average hourly earnings. The average workweek (also known as hours worked) is important for two reasons. First, it is a critical determinant of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. Second, it is considered a useful indicator of labor market conditions: a rising workweek early in the business cycle may be the first indication that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls, while late in the cycle a rising workweek may indicate that employers are having difficulty finding qualified applicants for open positions. Average earnings are closel

Michigan Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 in December 1964. At least 500 telephone interviews are conducted each month of a continental United States sample (Alaska and Hawaii are excluded). Five core questions are asked.[1] The consumer confidence measures were devised in the late 1940s by Professor George Katona at the University of Michigan. They have now developed into an ongoing, nationally representative survey based on telephonic household interviews. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is developed from these interviews. The Index of Consumer Expectations (a sub-index of ICS) is included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Construction Spending: The construction spending report is broken down between residential, non-residential, and public expenditures on new construction. The monthly changes are both volatile and subject to huge revisions, so this report rarely has any market impact. Only trends extending over three months or more can be viewed as significant. The spending figures are in both nominal and real (inflation adjusted) by economists to forecast the investment component of quarterly GDP. The annualized percent changes between the quarterly averages of these two components match up well with residential investment and commercial structure changes in the GDP accounts.

ISM Index: ISM Manufacuring assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. Though manufacturing accounts for a relatively small portion of GDP, fluctuations in manufacturing tend to bear the most responsibility for changes in GDP. Consequently, developments in manufacturing often front run trends in the overall economy, making the ISM Manufacturing figure a leading indicator of economic turnarounds. A pickup in demand for manufactured products after a period of recession, reflected by a higher ISM figure, strongly suggests a reversal upward. Conversely a slowdown in manufacturing orders and production during a boom suggests a slowing of the economy.

Truck Sales: Auto and Truck Sales measure the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. They are considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. Demand for big ticket items such as autos and trucks tends to be interest rate sensitive, making the motor vehicle sector a leading indicator of business cycles.

Each auto maker reports sales individually. The reports are typically released over the course of the first three business days of the month. Using the individual reports, a total annual sales pace can be calculated after applying Commerce Department seasonal factors. It is this annual sales pace that the market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month.

Auto Sales: Auto and Truck Sales measure the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. They are considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. Demand for big ticket items such as autos and trucks tends to be interest rate sensitive, making the motor vehicle sector a leading indicator of business cycles.

Each auto maker reports sales individually. The reports are typically released over the course of the first three business days of the month. Using the individual reports, a total annual sales pace can be calculated after applying Commerce Department seasonal factors. It is this annual sales pace that the market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month.

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